{
  "updated": "2026-10-11",
  "note": "Every row cites a primary source. Roadmaps are plans.",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "date": "2025-06-10",
      "what": "IBM publishes a roadmap targeting IBM Quantum Starling by 2029: a fault tolerant machine running 100 million gates on 200 logical qubits.",
      "who": "IBM",
      "kind": "Roadmap (a plan, not delivered)",
      "source": "IBM Quantum blog",
      "url": "https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/large-scale-ftqc"
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-05",
      "what": "Google researchers estimate 2048 bit RSA could be broken by under 1 million noisy qubits in about a week, a 20 fold drop from their 2019 estimate.",
      "who": "Google Quantum AI",
      "kind": "Resource estimate",
      "source": "Google Security Blog",
      "url": "https://security.googleblog.com/2025/05/tracking-cost-of-quantum-factori.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-12-09",
      "what": "Google announces the 105 qubit Willow chip and error correction where errors fall as the code grows ('below threshold').",
      "who": "Google Quantum AI",
      "kind": "Hardware and error correction result",
      "source": "Google blog",
      "url": "https://blog.google/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip/"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-08-13",
      "what": "NIST finalises the first three post-quantum cryptography standards: FIPS 203, 204 and 205.",
      "who": "NIST",
      "kind": "Standard",
      "source": "NIST",
      "url": "https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2024/08/nist-releases-first-3-finalized-post-quantum-encryption-standards"
    },
    {
      "date": "2019-10-23",
      "what": "Google reports a random circuit sampling experiment on its 53 qubit Sycamore chip and claims quantum supremacy. The claim was later disputed by classical computing researchers.",
      "who": "Google",
      "kind": "Experiment (disputed)",
      "source": "Nature",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1666-5"
    },
    {
      "date": "1996",
      "what": "Lov Grover publishes a quantum search algorithm with a quadratic speedup over classical search.",
      "who": "Lov Grover",
      "kind": "Algorithm",
      "source": "arXiv:quant-ph/9605043",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9605043"
    },
    {
      "date": "1994",
      "what": "Peter Shor shows a quantum computer could factor integers and compute discrete logarithms efficiently, the basis of the threat to RSA and elliptic curve cryptography.",
      "who": "Peter Shor",
      "kind": "Algorithm",
      "source": "arXiv:quant-ph/9508027",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9508027"
    }
  ],
  "companies": [
    {
      "name": "IBM",
      "approach": "Superconducting qubits",
      "url": "https://www.ibm.com/quantum",
      "note": "Published roadmap to a 200 logical qubit machine by 2029 (see milestones)."
    },
    {
      "name": "Google Quantum AI",
      "approach": "Superconducting qubits",
      "url": "https://quantumai.google",
      "note": "105 qubit Willow chip announced December 2024."
    },
    {
      "name": "IonQ",
      "approach": "Trapped ions",
      "url": "https://ionq.com",
      "note": ""
    },
    {
      "name": "Quantinuum Ltd",
      "approach": "Trapped ions",
      "url": "https://www.quantinuum.com",
      "note": "A company. Not related to QUANTUM (QNT) on Solana."
    },
    {
      "name": "Rigetti",
      "approach": "Superconducting qubits",
      "url": "https://www.rigetti.com",
      "note": ""
    },
    {
      "name": "D-Wave",
      "approach": "Quantum annealing",
      "url": "https://www.dwavequantum.com",
      "note": "Annealer for optimisation, not a general gate machine."
    },
    {
      "name": "QuEra",
      "approach": "Neutral atoms",
      "url": "https://www.quera.com",
      "note": ""
    },
    {
      "name": "Pasqal",
      "approach": "Neutral atoms",
      "url": "https://pasqal.com",
      "note": ""
    },
    {
      "name": "PsiQuantum",
      "approach": "Photonics",
      "url": "https://www.psiquantum.com",
      "note": ""
    }
  ]
}