What Analysts Say About the Quantum Market: McKinsey, BCG, IDC and Gartner
Why this guide exists
Quantum headlines love a big number: billions, even trillions. Those numbers come from a small set of analyst reports that get quoted over and over, often with the definitions stripped off. This guide lists what the main reports reportedly say, in plain English, with the dates. It is media literacy, not a prediction and not financial advice. Every number below is a reported estimate, and the QNT memecoin has nothing to do with any firm or company named here.
McKinsey Quantum Technology Monitor 2026
McKinsey released its 2026 edition, titled "A commercial tipping point", on April 20, 2026, with data collection ending in March 2026 (per a critical review of the report, see Sources). Reported headline figures:
- Revenue of quantum computing companies: over 1 billion dollars in 2025, projected to reach as much as 4.4 billion by 2028.
- Economic value of quantum computing: 1.3 trillion to 2.7 trillion dollars worldwide by 2035. This is not revenue. The reviewer describes it as cost savings and revenue increases that companies gain from using quantum, and notes the term is not clearly defined.
- Quantum technology market: 60 billion to 100 billion dollars by 2035, of which quantum computing is 43 billion to 71 billion. The reviewer reports this was revised up from 28 billion in the previous edition.
- Investment: 12.6 billion dollars in 2025, a 6.3 times jump from the year before, with McKinsey noting that data on Chinese start-up investment is limited so the real total is likely higher.
McKinsey's 2025 edition: the three pillars
McKinsey splits the field into quantum computing, quantum communication and quantum sensing. Summaries of the June 2025 edition report 2035 ranges of roughly 28 billion to 72 billion dollars for computing, 11 billion to 15 billion for communication and 7 billion to 10 billion for sensing, adding up to as much as 97 billion, and about 198 billion by 2040. Those three-way numbers came from secondary summaries of the report. I could not open the McKinsey page itself when checking, so confirm them on McKinsey's site. The point for readers: even in McKinsey's framing, computing is the biggest slice, while communication and sensing are smaller but nearer to real products (see why sensing is nearest term and quantum key distribution).
BCG: value and market, to 2040
A July 2024 Boston Consulting Group update, as summarized by a law firm on August 1, 2024, reports that quantum computing could create 450 billion to 850 billion dollars of economic value by 2040, with a market for hardware and software providers of 90 billion to 170 billion dollars. Notice the same split as McKinsey: a big value number for the economy and a much smaller market number for the companies selling the machines.
IDC: customer spending
IDC measures what customers spend. Its August 2023 release (via TelecomTV) reported worldwide quantum computing customer spending of 1.1 billion dollars in 2022, rising to 7.6 billion in 2027, a 48.1 percent yearly growth rate. The scope includes quantum computing as a service plus enabling and adjacent services. IDC's earlier forecast from December 2021 had said 8.6 billion in 2027.
Gartner
A Gartner abstract dated September 11, 2026 is reported to project the quantum computing market at 2.3 billion dollars by 2030, a 26.7 percent yearly growth rate over 2025 to 2030. The full report is paywalled and I could only see search-engine summaries of the abstract, so treat this as the least verified figure here.
Why the numbers look so different
| Source | What it counts | Reported figure |
|---|---|---|
| McKinsey 2026 | Economic value to companies | 1.3 to 2.7 trillion dollars by 2035 |
| McKinsey 2026 | Technology market | 60 to 100 billion by 2035 |
| BCG 2024 | Provider market | 90 to 170 billion by 2040 |
| IDC 2023 | Customer spending | 7.6 billion in 2027 |
| Gartner 2026 | Computing market | 2.3 billion by 2030 |
Different years, different definitions, different scopes. Read how to read a quantum market forecast next, then see how these forecasts have been revised and what companies actually report.
Sources and further reading
- McKinsey: Quantum Technology Monitor 2026, a commercial tipping point
- PostQuantum.com: a critical read of the McKinsey Quantum Monitor 2026
- McKinsey: The Year of Quantum, from concept to reality in 2025
- Marks and Clerk: summary of the BCG 2040 study (1 August 2024)
- TelecomTV: IDC forecast of 7.6 billion dollars in 2027 (17 August 2023)
- Help Net Security: IDC forecast of 8.6 billion dollars in 2027 (6 December 2021)
- Gartner: insights abstract on quantum computing market (dated 11 September 2026)
Reported as of 2026-10-09. Analyst reports are revised often and full versions are sometimes behind paywalls, so check the primary documents before relying on any figure. Nothing here is financial advice. The QNT memecoin is independent of Quantinuum Ltd, the real company, and of every analyst firm and company named on this page.
Frequently asked questions
What does McKinsey say about the quantum market in 2026?
Reportedly: quantum computing company revenue above 1 billion dollars in 2025 and up to 4.4 billion by 2028, a quantum technology market of 60 to 100 billion dollars by 2035, and 1.3 to 2.7 trillion dollars of economic value from computing by 2035. These come from the April 2026 Monitor as reviewed in the sources.
Are quantum market forecasts the same as revenue?
No. Some reports measure economic value, some measure provider revenue, and some measure customer spending. They answer different questions and cannot be added or compared directly.
Which quantum forecast is correct?
None can be called correct yet, because they look years ahead and rest on assumptions about technology that does not exist today. Compare their definitions and check them against company results as they arrive.
Does a big quantum market forecast affect the QNT memecoin?
A forecast is about an industry, not about any token. QNT is an independent community memecoin with no link to Quantinuum Ltd or any analyst. This is not financial advice.
Keep reading
- How to Read a Quantum Market Forecast: A Critical Reader's Checklist
Seven questions that turn a scary-big quantum market number into something you can judge for yourself: definitions, ranges, horizons and who is paying for the report. - Quantum Forecast Revisions: How Analysts Changed Their Numbers
IDC cut its quantum forecast in 2023, BCG trimmed near term value in 2024, and McKinsey raised its 2026 market estimate. What revisions teach us. - Quantum Company Revenue as Ground Truth: IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave and Quantinuum Ltd
Forecasts are opinions about the future. Company filings and earnings releases are measurements of the past. Here are the latest reported quarterly revenues for the main public quantum companies. - Quantum Computing Industry Overview: Who Does What
A neutral map of the quantum computing industry: hardware builders, software firms, cloud providers, labs, governments and suppliers, and what is uncertain.
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